مدل‌سازی پراکنش ساقه‌خوار نواری برنج (Chilo suppressalis) در اقلیم‌های مختلف ایران

Stem borers are the major pests at all stages of rice growth. Accurate assessment of potential distribution of the pests in paddy filed ecosystems, play a key role in their management. In this study, the potential distribution of striped rice stem borer, Chilo suppressalis (Walker, 1863) was investigated in Iran. A combination records of field sampling (using light, malaise and pheromone traps) during 2015-2017 and those of samples deposited in collections and recorded in scientific sources were usedin modeling analyses. Moreover, climatic and topographical variables were provided through the WorldClim database. Finally, the potential distribution of striped rice stem borer was determined using nine distribution models (GLM, BRT, SVM, CART, MARS, RF, Maxent, Maxlike and BIOCLIM) through species distribution modeling (sdm) package in R software. The results showed that paddy fields in limited areas of Iran including Guilan, Mazandaran, Golestan, Zanjan, Qazvin, Ardabil, Azarbayejan-e Sharqi, Esfahan, Chaharmahal-Bakhtiari, Khorasan-e Razavi, Markazi and Azarbayejan-e Qarbi provinces are suitable for the presence of C. suppressalis. Furthermore, wide areas in the west, southwest, south, southeast, east, and center of Iran had the least probability for presence of C. suppressalis. The mean temperature of warmest quarter (climatic variable) and elevation (topographic variable), respectively, had the highest contribution in species distributionmodelling of the pest. Based on AUC and TSS indices, all models had acceptable performance for predicting the distribution of C. suppressalis. The current findings would provide key and basic distribution information of the striped rice stem borer in paddy fields of Iran, which could be useful in implementing an effective pest management program (including quarantine and crop pattern).